Probably too early NCAAM BPI rankings

The NCAA men's college basketball season is just under 100 days away, but predictions are already being formulated.

Recently, ESPN released some summertime BPI rankings for guy's college hoops. Yes, we are a long way out, but as they mention, the October rankings are pretty predictive, so it's reasonable to think that some August numbers may be telling as well.

BPI rankings are unique, and take into account some in-depth factors that may look a little funny without some explanation. Here is a description of what it takes into account:

The preseason rankings are based on the following categories: the quality and quantity of the returning players on the team, including transfers and players who missed last season because of injury; recruiting rankings, both overall and the number of five-star prospects; and coaches’ past performances on offense and defense.
— Jeff Borzello, ESPN Staff Writer

It is important to note that the rankings are weighted on returning talent when examining the below list. This means that Kentucky and Duke in particular will be shown lower here than any other ranking list you will find. For the sake of consistency, they are left where they are to purely show BPI numbers.

A few other team that have surprising rankings are Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse, and Wisconsin. The model likes Marquette and WV's offense and coaching style. Wisconsin and Syracuse seem to be based largely on returning talent. Below is the top 25 of the list, taken directly from ESPN:


As mentioned, we are a long way out from college basketball season. It is fun to play the guessing game on where everyone will wind up, and there are a lot of numbers behind the above list. BPI doesn't account for everything such as Duke's massive influx of young talent, so things are certainly subject to change.

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